Maybe I am extrapolating too much from the hospital situation here in parts of Europe (due to Delta’s seasonality, not yet to Omicron) but I think the probability of widely overwhelmed hospitals is still too low with 17%, taken together with your other stated probabilities:
a) 50% Omicron not importantly less virulent than Delta (rephrased statement)
b) 95% Omicron most common strain
c) 65% Omicron with a transmission advantage of more than 100%
If we take that, and in addition,
d) Low vaccination rates in many US states outside of New England (NPR vaccination tracker).
then I would think about 30% is more likely, because the chance of not vaccine protected persons being infected with a virus not importantly less virulent should massively increase given your probabilities. (Actually maybe more than 30%, but the possibility of fast availability of treatment options, e.g. Paxlovid, has to be taken into account).
Yeah, that’s fair. I think what’s going on is that I’m asking a compound question, and ‘overwhelmed hospitals but we don’t respond with severe restrictions’ would be a no, but also I didn’t update this enough. The 35->65 update directly should raise this and I should have been at 25-30.
In US States with low vaccination rates, what is the estimated amount of people who already recovered from earlier covid strains? If it is higher than in South Africa, most of these recovered unvaccinated will have protection which is similar to vaccinated but without a booster.
Maybe I am extrapolating too much from the hospital situation here in parts of Europe (due to Delta’s seasonality, not yet to Omicron) but I think the probability of widely overwhelmed hospitals is still too low with 17%, taken together with your other stated probabilities:
a) 50% Omicron not importantly less virulent than Delta (rephrased statement)
b) 95% Omicron most common strain
c) 65% Omicron with a transmission advantage of more than 100%
If we take that, and in addition,
d) Low vaccination rates in many US states outside of New England (NPR vaccination tracker).
then I would think about 30% is more likely, because the chance of not vaccine protected persons being infected with a virus not importantly less virulent should massively increase given your probabilities. (Actually maybe more than 30%, but the possibility of fast availability of treatment options, e.g. Paxlovid, has to be taken into account).
Yeah, that’s fair. I think what’s going on is that I’m asking a compound question, and ‘overwhelmed hospitals but we don’t respond with severe restrictions’ would be a no, but also I didn’t update this enough. The 35->65 update directly should raise this and I should have been at 25-30.
Oof, yeah, that sounds like playing to an inside straight. You’re braver than I.
In US States with low vaccination rates, what is the estimated amount of people who already recovered from earlier covid strains? If it is higher than in South Africa, most of these recovered unvaccinated will have protection which is similar to vaccinated but without a booster.