I don’t think any of the tests are expected to return a positive result when the tested person’s viral load is extremely low. You can get a positive result and remain asymptomatic, but I think that’s only supposed to happen when the virus has got into you in a meaningful way, i.e. multiplied itself a bunch of times—not when you just happen to have recently breathed in a few virus particles.
Fair enough. The question is then, does a vaccinated person’s immune system take care of the virus so fast that the viral load remains “extremely low” enough to result in a negative test?
That seems counterintuitive given that Elizabeth says vaccinated people are more likely to be symptomatic, but I suppose it’s possible that the immune system would trigger covid-19 symptoms even while maintaining a low viral load.
My model is that the vaccine basically gives your immune system a head start, so your chances of each of the following (conditional on a better outcome not having already happened) are higher than they otherwise would be:
clearing the virus before it replicates enough to be noticable, either via symptoms or a positive test;
clearing the virus after it is noticeable, but before anything serious happens;
clearing the virus after it causes serious disease, but before it kills you.
So the answer to your question would be ‘sometimes’—more often than if they were not vaccinated, but of course non-vaccinated people do it significantly >0% and vaccinated people significantly <100% of the time.
(Sorry if this misses your main point, btw—I’m not being deliberately obtuse, I’m just not completely sure what your broader point is, so I’m focussing on the specific questions.)
(disclaimer: no expertise)
I don’t think any of the tests are expected to return a positive result when the tested person’s viral load is extremely low. You can get a positive result and remain asymptomatic, but I think that’s only supposed to happen when the virus has got into you in a meaningful way, i.e. multiplied itself a bunch of times—not when you just happen to have recently breathed in a few virus particles.
as a quick citation, see the data here on false negative rates: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-88498-9
Fair enough. The question is then, does a vaccinated person’s immune system take care of the virus so fast that the viral load remains “extremely low” enough to result in a negative test?
That seems counterintuitive given that Elizabeth says vaccinated people are more likely to be symptomatic, but I suppose it’s possible that the immune system would trigger covid-19 symptoms even while maintaining a low viral load.
My model is that the vaccine basically gives your immune system a head start, so your chances of each of the following (conditional on a better outcome not having already happened) are higher than they otherwise would be:
clearing the virus before it replicates enough to be noticable, either via symptoms or a positive test;
clearing the virus after it is noticeable, but before anything serious happens;
clearing the virus after it causes serious disease, but before it kills you.
So the answer to your question would be ‘sometimes’—more often than if they were not vaccinated, but of course non-vaccinated people do it significantly >0% and vaccinated people significantly <100% of the time.
(Sorry if this misses your main point, btw—I’m not being deliberately obtuse, I’m just not completely sure what your broader point is, so I’m focussing on the specific questions.)