I could imagine the capability occurring but not playing out that way, because the SWEs won’t necessarily be fired even after becoming useless—so it won’t be completely obvious from the outside. But this is a sociological point about when companies fire people, not a prediction about AI capabilities.
SWEs won’t necessarily be fired even after becoming useless
I’m actually surprised at how eager/willing big tech is to fire SWEs once they’re sure they won’t be economically valuable. I think a lot of priors for them being stable come from the ZIRP era. Now, these companies have quite frequent layoffs, silent layoffs, and performance firings. Companies becoming leaner will be a good litmus test for a lot of these claims.
I could imagine the capability occurring but not playing out that way, because the SWEs won’t necessarily be fired even after becoming useless—so it won’t be completely obvious from the outside. But this is a sociological point about when companies fire people, not a prediction about AI capabilities.
I’m actually surprised at how eager/willing big tech is to fire SWEs once they’re sure they won’t be economically valuable. I think a lot of priors for them being stable come from the ZIRP era. Now, these companies have quite frequent layoffs, silent layoffs, and performance firings. Companies becoming leaner will be a good litmus test for a lot of these claims.