Cole Wyeth comments on ≤10-year Timelines Remain Unlikely Despite DeepSeek and o3

[Cole Wyeth]

I endorse this take wholeheartedly.

I also wrote something related (but probably not as good) very recently: https://​​www.lesswrong.com/​​posts/​​vvgND6aLjuDR6QzDF/​​my-model-of-what-is-going-on-with-llms