The two scenarios are more different than you present them. In one case, the probability is of in any 100 coin flips, all of them are heads. In the other, it’s that of all possible worlds, you live in one where ponies fall from the sky. So the second is a probability of the type of universe we live in.
So, when you say
No matter how many times somebody pulls the pony trick, a rational agent is never going to get their hopes up.
It’s not accurate. What it should be, is your confidence in pony man should be exactly as high as getting all heads in 100 flips the first time you make the coin flips, no matter how many times he makes that claim.
The two scenarios are more different than you present them. In one case, the probability is of in any 100 coin flips, all of them are heads. In the other, it’s that of all possible worlds, you live in one where ponies fall from the sky. So the second is a probability of the type of universe we live in.
So, when you say
It’s not accurate. What it should be, is your confidence in pony man should be exactly as high as getting all heads in 100 flips the first time you make the coin flips, no matter how many times he makes that claim.