Note that it says “the degree of uncertainty remaining is insufficient to render the market interesting” AND <5% or >95%.
This seems reasonable to me. Note that degree varies by market—an absolute probability by itself wouldn’t be a good rule. If it was already very unlikely (e.g. “Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in NYC this year”), then for the degree of uncertainty to become uninteresting it has to become much more unlikely in a way that rules out most of the previous probability space.
I’ve thought about this type of case a decent amount, and I think a perfectly reasonable approach is to resove early when the uncertainty is almost entirely gone, but with the commitment to re-open and re-resolve as needed in the event that the “almost entirely” turns out to be relevant.
Classic example: “Who wins election X?” Resolve as soon as projected by mainstream decision desks. But on a large number of election markets, there will surely be some small number of wrong projections, so you undo the resolution, reopen the market, and eventually re-resolve as needed.
Pro: avoids locking up mana unnecessarily. Con: undoing resolutions can cause people to have negative mana.
Philosophically, you can look at this as giving everyone a loan based on the presumptive resolution.
Note that it says “the degree of uncertainty remaining is insufficient to render the market interesting” AND <5% or >95%.
This seems reasonable to me. Note that degree varies by market—an absolute probability by itself wouldn’t be a good rule. If it was already very unlikely (e.g. “Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in NYC this year”), then for the degree of uncertainty to become uninteresting it has to become much more unlikely in a way that rules out most of the previous probability space.
I’ve thought about this type of case a decent amount, and I think a perfectly reasonable approach is to resove early when the uncertainty is almost entirely gone, but with the commitment to re-open and re-resolve as needed in the event that the “almost entirely” turns out to be relevant.
Classic example: “Who wins election X?” Resolve as soon as projected by mainstream decision desks. But on a large number of election markets, there will surely be some small number of wrong projections, so you undo the resolution, reopen the market, and eventually re-resolve as needed.
Pro: avoids locking up mana unnecessarily. Con: undoing resolutions can cause people to have negative mana.
Philosophically, you can look at this as giving everyone a loan based on the presumptive resolution.