Adults will pre-mortem plan by thinking most of their plans will fail. They will therefore they have a dozen layers of backups and action plans prepared in advance. This is also so that other people can feel that they’re safe because someone had already planned this. (“Yeah, I knew this would happen” type of vibe.)
The question would then be “How will my first 10 layers of plans go wrong and how can I take this into account?”
A quick example of this might look like this:
Race dynamics will happen, therefore we need controls and coordination (90%)
Coordination will break down therefore we need better systems (90%)
We will find these better systems yet they will not be implemented by default (85%)
We will therefore have to develop new coordination systems yet they can’t be too big since they won’t be implemented (80%)
We should therefore work on developing proven coordination systems where they empirically work and then scale them
(Other plan maybe around tracking compute or other governance measures)
And I’ve now coincidentally arrived at the same place as Audrey Tang...
But we need more layers than this because systems will fail in various more ways as well!
Adults will pre-mortem plan by thinking most of their plans will fail. They will therefore they have a dozen layers of backups and action plans prepared in advance. This is also so that other people can feel that they’re safe because someone had already planned this. (“Yeah, I knew this would happen” type of vibe.)
The question would then be “How will my first 10 layers of plans go wrong and how can I take this into account?”
A quick example of this might look like this:
Race dynamics will happen, therefore we need controls and coordination (90%)
Coordination will break down therefore we need better systems (90%)
We will find these better systems yet they will not be implemented by default (85%)
We will therefore have to develop new coordination systems yet they can’t be too big since they won’t be implemented (80%)
We should therefore work on developing proven coordination systems where they empirically work and then scale them
(Other plan maybe around tracking compute or other governance measures)
And I’ve now coincidentally arrived at the same place as Audrey Tang...
But we need more layers than this because systems will fail in various more ways as well!