Cool. I didn’t make Manifolds because of a) anchoring and b) I wouldn’t plan on resolving the markets, since then future readers wouldn’t be able to register their predictions?
When you publish the next post in the series later traders will still be able to read them in the correct order and make quasi-predictions, and similarly I think readers can make their own predictions before following Manifold links or reading LessWrong comments.
I was interested to see what the market wisdom would be on value edits to get a sense of what results would be surprising to the group without knowing how to weight the individual predictions in the comments here.
Cool. I didn’t make Manifolds because of a) anchoring and b) I wouldn’t plan on resolving the markets, since then future readers wouldn’t be able to register their predictions?
When you publish the next post in the series later traders will still be able to read them in the correct order and make quasi-predictions, and similarly I think readers can make their own predictions before following Manifold links or reading LessWrong comments.
I was interested to see what the market wisdom would be on value edits to get a sense of what results would be surprising to the group without knowing how to weight the individual predictions in the comments here.