Rephrase those as the inverse probabilities (Trump’s probability of losing is 35%, Cruz’s is 65%), and it will make more sense.
It seems to me that if the probability of Trump winning is 35% and the probability of Cruz winning is 65%, then the probability of Trump or Cruz winning is 100% (since the probability of Cruz AND Trump wining is 0%).
Rephrase those as the inverse probabilities (Trump’s probability of losing is 35%, Cruz’s is 65%), and it will make more sense.
It seems to me that if the probability of Trump winning is 35% and the probability of Cruz winning is 65%, then the probability of Trump or Cruz winning is 100% (since the probability of Cruz AND Trump wining is 0%).