I would guess the answer is in the prediction in between the Clinton and Sanders nomination predictions: “Hillary to be indicted on criminal charges: 50%”. Presumably that would hurt her chances of nomination.
This isn’t the whole of it, but it contributes, along with personal issues Clinton is struggling with. The bigger issue is that the coalition is fractured. If Sanders weren’t playing softball against Hillary, it wouldn’t even be a question, but I think he believes playing hard politics against her would damage his chances against Trump by fracturing the Democratic coalition along gendered lines. The Democratic coalition is at its weakest leaving a Democratic presidency, since anything they have achieved results in a less interested coalition member group whose goals are already at least partially achieved, and anything they haven’t achieved results in a frustrated coalition member group whose goals were perceived to be passed over.
United, the Democrats win; their coalition is larger than the Republican base. Unfortunately, they’re at their least united right now, and Sanders can’t afford to fracture them any further. Hillary, on the other hand, seems perfectly happy to weaken the coalition in order to win the nomination.
anything they have achieved results in a less interested coalition member group [...] anything they haven’t achieved results in a frustrated coalition member group
Seems fairly plausible, but why put this specifically in terms of the Democrats? The same will apply to the Republicans, or any other party anywhere whose support comes from anything other than a perfectly homogeneous group.
Hillary, on the other hand, seems perfectly happy to weaken the coalition in order to win the nomination.
On the face of it, that should make her more likely to get nominated. Are you suggesting that the Democratic Party’s electorate is sufficiently calculating to reason: “She’s doing these things to get nominated, they seem likely to piss off Sanders supporters, that will hurt us in the general election, so I won’t vote for her in the primary”? Colour me unconvinced.
Seems fairly plausible, but why put this specifically in terms of the Democrats? The same will apply to the Republicans, or any other party anywhere whose support comes from anything other than a perfectly homogeneous group.
The Republicans are less of a coalition than the Democrats, and more an alliance of two groups; social conservatives, and economic liberals.
On the face of it, that should make her more likely to get nominated. Are you suggesting that the Democratic Party’s electorate is sufficiently calculating to reason: “She’s doing these things to get nominated, they seem likely to piss off Sanders supporters, that will hurt us in the general election, so I won’t vote for her in the primary”? Colour me unconvinced.
This isn’t why Sanders will win, this is why he’s still behind. It’s a short-term strategy, however, which she started too soon; the primary voters aren’t going to vote against Hillary because they don’t think they’ll win in the general election, they’re going to vote against Hillary because she’s alienated them to pander to her base.
The Republicans are less of a coalition than the Democrats
So what? If your argument is “if they achieve group G’s goals, group G will be unmotivated because they’ve already got what they need; if they don’t, group G will be unmotivated because they’ll think they’ve been neglected”, surely this applies whether group G is 10% of the party’s support or 50%.
I don’t see the relevance of the question. The argument wasn’t “It’s difficult for the Democrats to do things that will please all their supporters, because their supporters are a motley coalition of groups that want different things”. It was “Support for the Democrats will be weak in this situation, because each group will be demotivated for one reason if they’ve got what they want and demotivated for a different reason if they haven’t got what they want”.
It’s relevant. A given Democrat is likely a Democrat for their one issue; on all other issues, they tend to revert to the mean (which is why, historically, Democrats tend to rate their party lower on listening to the base than the Republicans do). The Democratic platform is a collection of concessions and compromises between the different coalitions, and is attractive only because of a given coalition’s particular interests; the rest of what it offers isn’t particularly attractive to its constituents.
Republican objectives tend to be more in-line with what its constituents want, since it is only catering to a couple of different factions. It isn’t invulnerable, of course, as we see right now with the fight between the conservatives and the pragmatists in the party, but is more resilient to this.
The outcome is a Republican base that generally-consistently turns out, and a Democratic base that turns out only when they feel they are losing.
The moderates, meanwhile, swing back and forth based on whoever has annoyed them the most recently. Since the party that isn’t in power can’t do much to annoy them, and things that have happened are more salient than things that might happen, you get elections that swing from party to party each election cycle. With increasing media exposure (both through the traditional media since Watergate, and the Internet more recently), they’re increasingly aware of the smallest annoyances, which is accelerating the process.
Republican objectives tend to be more in-line with what its constituents want [...] The outcome is a Republican base that generally-consistently turns out, and a Democratic base that turns out only when they feel they are losing.
This may all be correct, but it seems to me an entirely different argument from the one you made before and on which I was commenting.
This isn’t the whole of it, but it contributes, along with personal issues Clinton is struggling with. The bigger issue is that the coalition is fractured. If Sanders weren’t playing softball against Hillary, it wouldn’t even be a question, but I think he believes playing hard politics against her would damage his chances against Trump by fracturing the Democratic coalition along gendered lines. The Democratic coalition is at its weakest leaving a Democratic presidency, since anything they have achieved results in a less interested coalition member group whose goals are already at least partially achieved, and anything they haven’t achieved results in a frustrated coalition member group whose goals were perceived to be passed over.
United, the Democrats win; their coalition is larger than the Republican base. Unfortunately, they’re at their least united right now, and Sanders can’t afford to fracture them any further. Hillary, on the other hand, seems perfectly happy to weaken the coalition in order to win the nomination.
Seems fairly plausible, but why put this specifically in terms of the Democrats? The same will apply to the Republicans, or any other party anywhere whose support comes from anything other than a perfectly homogeneous group.
On the face of it, that should make her more likely to get nominated. Are you suggesting that the Democratic Party’s electorate is sufficiently calculating to reason: “She’s doing these things to get nominated, they seem likely to piss off Sanders supporters, that will hurt us in the general election, so I won’t vote for her in the primary”? Colour me unconvinced.
The Republicans are less of a coalition than the Democrats, and more an alliance of two groups; social conservatives, and economic liberals.
This isn’t why Sanders will win, this is why he’s still behind. It’s a short-term strategy, however, which she started too soon; the primary voters aren’t going to vote against Hillary because they don’t think they’ll win in the general election, they’re going to vote against Hillary because she’s alienated them to pander to her base.
So what? If your argument is “if they achieve group G’s goals, group G will be unmotivated because they’ve already got what they need; if they don’t, group G will be unmotivated because they’ll think they’ve been neglected”, surely this applies whether group G is 10% of the party’s support or 50%.
Which is easier: Ordering food that ten people need to agree upon, or ordering food that two people need to agree upon?
I don’t see the relevance of the question. The argument wasn’t “It’s difficult for the Democrats to do things that will please all their supporters, because their supporters are a motley coalition of groups that want different things”. It was “Support for the Democrats will be weak in this situation, because each group will be demotivated for one reason if they’ve got what they want and demotivated for a different reason if they haven’t got what they want”.
It’s relevant. A given Democrat is likely a Democrat for their one issue; on all other issues, they tend to revert to the mean (which is why, historically, Democrats tend to rate their party lower on listening to the base than the Republicans do). The Democratic platform is a collection of concessions and compromises between the different coalitions, and is attractive only because of a given coalition’s particular interests; the rest of what it offers isn’t particularly attractive to its constituents.
Republican objectives tend to be more in-line with what its constituents want, since it is only catering to a couple of different factions. It isn’t invulnerable, of course, as we see right now with the fight between the conservatives and the pragmatists in the party, but is more resilient to this.
The outcome is a Republican base that generally-consistently turns out, and a Democratic base that turns out only when they feel they are losing.
The moderates, meanwhile, swing back and forth based on whoever has annoyed them the most recently. Since the party that isn’t in power can’t do much to annoy them, and things that have happened are more salient than things that might happen, you get elections that swing from party to party each election cycle. With increasing media exposure (both through the traditional media since Watergate, and the Internet more recently), they’re increasingly aware of the smallest annoyances, which is accelerating the process.
This may all be correct, but it seems to me an entirely different argument from the one you made before and on which I was commenting.