See:
“Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes”
http://www.gwern.net/The%20Existential%20Risk%20of%20Mathematical%20Error
Jaynes on the Emperor of China fallacy
Schimmack’s incredibility index
Looks like the paper is now out: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1601.00900v1.pdf
Thanks Panorama and Gwern, incredibly interesting quote and links
See:
“Probing the Improbable: Methodological Challenges for Risks with Low Probabilities and High Stakes”
http://www.gwern.net/The%20Existential%20Risk%20of%20Mathematical%20Error
Jaynes on the Emperor of China fallacy
Schimmack’s incredibility index
Looks like the paper is now out: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1601.00900v1.pdf
Thanks Panorama and Gwern, incredibly interesting quote and links