For that matter, how do we apply the “Outside View” advice? Based on the LessWrong survey results, “look at the general population of age X” is a lousy way to predict an average lesswrongian’s personality at age X; presumably that’s true for age X+10 too. “If you match the average of lesswrongians at age X, look for their average at age X+10” might be decent advice under the cynical view that “having had 10 extra years to read LessWrong won’t lead to significant personality changes”, if the data wasn’t too sparse.
For that matter, how do we apply the “Outside View” advice? Based on the LessWrong survey results, “look at the general population of age X” is a lousy way to predict an average lesswrongian’s personality at age X; presumably that’s true for age X+10 too. “If you match the average of lesswrongians at age X, look for their average at age X+10” might be decent advice under the cynical view that “having had 10 extra years to read LessWrong won’t lead to significant personality changes”, if the data wasn’t too sparse.