I think you are intuiting the question of “which DT is better” using the real world too heavily in a sort of “I think a world where people all do this is better” → “this DT is better” kind of way. You can’t just hope things work out this way.
Mostly fair, as i think you said elsewhere, i think I misunderstood you as making a value claim when you meant better in some other terms.
But one of the main reasons Yud and Soares give for preferring FDT over CDT is a belief that FDT leads to better outcomes. That is what I find unconvincing. It seems to me that more realistic assumptions better model observations under CDT (e.g. Braess’s paradox, to use an exampl I did elsewhere) and can lead to better outcomes. That was my central thesis. I do agree, that it is usually trivial to conceive of scenarios where any given theory loses to another in some sense.
Yes, thats why you use laws / precommitments to prevent it
Yes, but I would argue it is good to have mediating forces outside of laws. Derek can get either kf them to sign a contract before hand for a $1,000,199, but only FDT would say that they should honor that contract absent any mechanism to enforce it. While I don’t think it can be proven, it seems sensible before considering enforcement mechanisms we should consider honoring contracts based on how much we value honesty, associated signals and other such considerations. It seems less sensible to say we should honor them based solely on value estimates of the entire scenario they fall under. It alao seems sensible, if we include enforcement mechanism, that such mechanism be aet up to prevent people not following contracts that are generally deemed not unreasonable and preventing unconscionable conditions from being imposed even on agents that rationally consented to them (as would be the case with the agents consenting to a 1,000,200 contract).
We are assuming Derek knows everything about Will right? So if Will changes his strategy based on his prior then Will knows that too.
You mean Derek knows it, right? But it doesn’t change Will’s value calculation, so it shouldn’t change his strategy a priori even if he had a prior for what he thinks Derek would accept. He would change his decision if we assumed he knew how Derek was likely to price set and adapted his strategy on that, though.
Mostly fair, as i think you said elsewhere, i think I misunderstood you as making a value claim when you meant better in some other terms.
But one of the main reasons Yud and Soares give for preferring FDT over CDT is a belief that FDT leads to better outcomes. That is what I find unconvincing. It seems to me that more realistic assumptions better model observations under CDT (e.g. Braess’s paradox, to use an exampl I did elsewhere) and can lead to better outcomes. That was my central thesis. I do agree, that it is usually trivial to conceive of scenarios where any given theory loses to another in some sense.
Yes, but I would argue it is good to have mediating forces outside of laws. Derek can get either kf them to sign a contract before hand for a $1,000,199, but only FDT would say that they should honor that contract absent any mechanism to enforce it. While I don’t think it can be proven, it seems sensible before considering enforcement mechanisms we should consider honoring contracts based on how much we value honesty, associated signals and other such considerations. It seems less sensible to say we should honor them based solely on value estimates of the entire scenario they fall under. It alao seems sensible, if we include enforcement mechanism, that such mechanism be aet up to prevent people not following contracts that are generally deemed not unreasonable and preventing unconscionable conditions from being imposed even on agents that rationally consented to them (as would be the case with the agents consenting to a 1,000,200 contract).
You mean Derek knows it, right? But it doesn’t change Will’s value calculation, so it shouldn’t change his strategy a priori even if he had a prior for what he thinks Derek would accept. He would change his decision if we assumed he knew how Derek was likely to price set and adapted his strategy on that, though.