I have made a post on Geert Vanden Bossche. He seems to have correctly predicted the rise of vaccine resistant variants from the start. He is very troubled by the evolutionary dynamic of vaccines and variants. Stating the end game is for the population to trend towards having no immunity and enhanced disease. Maybe a novel source to add to your inference. His augments are complex and rely on his expertise so i find them hard to follow. But his predictions of vaccine resistance have been uncomfortably true. Thanks https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/YhejgJjP7sRcahSBR/looking-for-reasoned-discussion-on-geert-vanden-bossche-s-1
“Vaccine resistant variants are likely to arise” is not that surprising of a prediction; getting this one right doesn’t put Vanden Bossche into a particularly special reference class. Vanden Bossche also makes the controversial statement that original antigenic sin applies against natural immunity, so that vaccines can make you worse off than not taking the vaccine. From what I gathered, this is considered highly unsubstantiated (but I’m not an expert and I’d be more reassured if someone with domain knowledge could double-check that). Last time we discussed this, I pointed out that he predicted that young vaccinated people might do worse against the Delta variant because of this effect (perhaps conditional on being infected in a certain time window shortly after vaccination). I’m pretty sure that this completely failed to be true – otherwise we’d have heard some reports of Delta being surprisingly bad for young vaccinated people.See the discussion here for more context. I continue to find the topic of original antigenic sin interesting, and I think there are indeed tricky issues with mass vaccination during an ongoing, uncontained pandemic with a fast-mutating virus, but judging by the last discussion linked above, I don’t think Vanden Bossche looks like a good source on this. It would be better if other, less ideological-seeming people could also address this topic.
There’s extensive discussion of OAS here and it’s clearly something that many immunologists have thought about deeply, yet no mention of effects on natural antibodies—https://www.statnews.com/2021/04/16/next-generation-covid-19-vaccines-are-supposed-to-be-better-some-experts-worry-they-could-be-worse/
Also I asked a similar question and got this response on a previous thread—https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/6apSCHHuWyxK635pE/omicron-variant-post-1-we-re-f-ed-it-s-never-over?commentId=gmzKDuzK3h7GqSgZf
I think it’s worth noting that a fast mutating fast spreading endemic disease with a fatality rate 10x that of the flu, on a modern Earth of 7 billion people, is also unprecedented in the history of epidemiology, just like mass vaccination while a virus is endemic.
In terms of what the evolutionary pressures are, we’d be in uncharted territory regardless of what policies we chose.
At the same time, the fact that we are in uncharted territory means you can’t use basic logic or historical precedent to rule out bad outcomes.