Possible Solution: Legislation to ban lethal autonomy. (Suggested by Daniel Suarez, please do not confuse his opinion of whether it is likely to work with mine. I am simply listing it here to encourage discussion and debate.)
Pro: Passing a law would probably generate news stories and may make the public more aware of the problem, increasing the chances that someone solves the problem.
Con: If the executive branch of the government has the ability to make these weapons, the legislative branch will no longer pose a threat to them. Legally, they’ll be forbidden, but practically speaking, they will not be prevented. Laws don’t prevent people from behaving badly, nor do they guarantee that bad behavior will be punished, they just specify consequences and define the bad behavior. The consequences are contingent upon whether the person is caught and whether the authorities have enough power to dole out a punishment. In the event that the lawbreaker gains so much power that the authorities can’t stop them, the threat of punishment is N/A. A law can’t solve the checks and balances issue.
Con: If militaries come to believe that having killer robots is critical to national defense (either because their enemies are posing a major threat, or because they’re more effective than other strategies or required as a part of an effective strategy) then they will likely oppose this law or refuse to follow it. Even if they manage to resist the temptation to build them as a contingency plan against risks, if they’re ever put into a position where there’s an immediate threat (for instance: choosing between death and lethal autonomy), they are likely to choose lethal autonomy. It may be impossible to keep them from using these as a weapon in that case, making the ban on lethal autonomy just another ineffectual rule.
If the consequences of breaking a rule are not as grave as the consequences of following it, then the rule isn’t likely to be followed.
Con: They say about banning guns that it doesn’t keep the bad people from having weapons, it just keeps good people unarmed. I’m concerned that the same may be true of laws that intentionally reduce the effectiveness of one’s warfare technology.
Possible Solution: Legislation to ban lethal autonomy. (Suggested by Daniel Suarez, please do not confuse his opinion of whether it is likely to work with mine. I am simply listing it here to encourage discussion and debate.)
Con: Since I am concerned about how enforceable this rule is, and don’t see a reason to trust that governments will resist temptation to break this rule, I am concerned that it may create a false sense of security.
Pro: Passing a law would probably generate news stories and may make the public more aware of the problem, increasing the chances that someone solves the problem.
Pro: Passing a law is likely to spread the word to the people in the military, some of whom may then have key ideas for preventing issues.
Pro: Passing a law would make it more likely that the legislative branch of the government is aware of the peril it’s in.
Pro: This might delay disaster long enough for better solutions to come along.
Con: If the executive branch of the government has the ability to make these weapons, the legislative branch will no longer pose a threat to them. Legally, they’ll be forbidden, but practically speaking, they will not be prevented. Laws don’t prevent people from behaving badly, nor do they guarantee that bad behavior will be punished, they just specify consequences and define the bad behavior. The consequences are contingent upon whether the person is caught and whether the authorities have enough power to dole out a punishment. In the event that the lawbreaker gains so much power that the authorities can’t stop them, the threat of punishment is N/A. A law can’t solve the checks and balances issue.
Con: If militaries come to believe that having killer robots is critical to national defense (either because their enemies are posing a major threat, or because they’re more effective than other strategies or required as a part of an effective strategy) then they will likely oppose this law or refuse to follow it. Even if they manage to resist the temptation to build them as a contingency plan against risks, if they’re ever put into a position where there’s an immediate threat (for instance: choosing between death and lethal autonomy), they are likely to choose lethal autonomy. It may be impossible to keep them from using these as a weapon in that case, making the ban on lethal autonomy just another ineffectual rule.
If the consequences of breaking a rule are not as grave as the consequences of following it, then the rule isn’t likely to be followed.
Con: They say about banning guns that it doesn’t keep the bad people from having weapons, it just keeps good people unarmed. I’m concerned that the same may be true of laws that intentionally reduce the effectiveness of one’s warfare technology.