You’re right. Those numbers weren’t just slightly coloured by hindsight bias but thoroughly coated in several layers of metallic paint and polished. They need to be adjusted drastically down. The reasons I originally considered them to be reasonable are:
The field of cancer research seem to be a lot like software in the 80s in that our technical ability to produce new treatments is increasing faster than the actual number of treatments produced. This means that any money thrown at small groups of people with a garage and a good idea is almost certain to yield good results. (I still think this and am investing accordingly)
I have made one such investment which turned out to be a significant contribution in developing a treatment for prostate cancer that gives most patients about 10 extra years.
There are far too many similarities between cancer cells and ageing cells for me to readily accept that it is a coincidence. This means that investing in cancer research startups has the added bonus of a tiny but non-zero chance of someone solving the entire problem as a side effect.
In retrospect, I also went: “prostate cancer patients == many ⇒ everyone == many” (I know, scope insensitivity :( )
On the other hand, my numbers for cryonics were also absurdly optimistic, so I’m not yet convinced that the qualitative point I was trying (ineptly) to make is invalid. The point was: Even a large chance of extending one life by a lot should be outweighed by a smaller chance of extending a lot of lives by a little, especially if the difference in total expected number of years is significant.
Also: Thanks for the pushback. I am far too used to spending time with people who accept whatever I say at face value and the feeling I get on here of being the dumbest person in the room is very welcome.
The numbers are indeed optimistic, but they are based on empirical evidence:
my grandfather has already gained a decade partly as a result of my investment in a cancer research startup some years back
More conservatively, but still vastly optimistic, suppose $50k has a 1% chance of creating a remedy for a long-term remission (say, 10 extra QALY) in a lethal disease which strikes 1% of the population and that almost every sufferer can get the cure. This reduces the total expected years gained down to some 2 million, which is still nothing to sneeze at.
How do you invest $50,000 to get a 25% chance of increasing everyone’s lifespan by 10 years? John Schloendorn himself couldn’t do that on $50K.
Reviewing the numbers you made up for sanity is an important part of making decisions after making up numbers.
You’re right. Those numbers weren’t just slightly coloured by hindsight bias but thoroughly coated in several layers of metallic paint and polished. They need to be adjusted drastically down. The reasons I originally considered them to be reasonable are:
The field of cancer research seem to be a lot like software in the 80s in that our technical ability to produce new treatments is increasing faster than the actual number of treatments produced. This means that any money thrown at small groups of people with a garage and a good idea is almost certain to yield good results. (I still think this and am investing accordingly)
I have made one such investment which turned out to be a significant contribution in developing a treatment for prostate cancer that gives most patients about 10 extra years.
There are far too many similarities between cancer cells and ageing cells for me to readily accept that it is a coincidence. This means that investing in cancer research startups has the added bonus of a tiny but non-zero chance of someone solving the entire problem as a side effect.
In retrospect, I also went: “prostate cancer patients == many ⇒ everyone == many” (I know, scope insensitivity :( )
On the other hand, my numbers for cryonics were also absurdly optimistic, so I’m not yet convinced that the qualitative point I was trying (ineptly) to make is invalid. The point was: Even a large chance of extending one life by a lot should be outweighed by a smaller chance of extending a lot of lives by a little, especially if the difference in total expected number of years is significant.
Also: Thanks for the pushback. I am far too used to spending time with people who accept whatever I say at face value and the feeling I get on here of being the dumbest person in the room is very welcome.
The numbers are indeed optimistic, but they are based on empirical evidence:
More conservatively, but still vastly optimistic, suppose $50k has a 1% chance of creating a remedy for a long-term remission (say, 10 extra QALY) in a lethal disease which strikes 1% of the population and that almost every sufferer can get the cure. This reduces the total expected years gained down to some 2 million, which is still nothing to sneeze at.