it is best to focus on the 1-X fraction of the probability space that you control
Crewmate: “Captain, we are hurtling towards the iceberg!”
Captain: “What probability do you give that we will hit?”
Crew: “Our best engineers say 80% in the next 5 to 10 minutes, sir!”
Capt: “It’s best to focus on the 20% likelihood we don’t hit; you can probably do something about the worlds where that is true. Don’t worry about the 80% worlds worlds where we are doomed; we’re doomed anyway if that’s the case!”
Crew: “But Captain, if I think about the 80%, I might be able to mitigate it!”
Capt: “You will be OK!”
Damn, this doesn’t bode well if these are our captains...
Crewmate: “Captain, we are hurtling towards the iceberg!”
Captain: “What probability do you give that we will hit?”
Crew: “Our best engineers say 80% in the next 5 to 10 minutes, sir!”
Capt: “It’s best to focus on the 20% likelihood we don’t hit; you can probably do something about the worlds where that is true. Don’t worry about the 80% worlds worlds where we are doomed; we’re doomed anyway if that’s the case!”
Crew: “But Captain, if I think about the 80%, I might be able to mitigate it!”
Capt: “You will be OK!”
Damn, this doesn’t bode well if these are our captains...
Denial isn’t just a river in Egypt, eh?