Many questions can be settled by recourse to available statistics and arithmetic—arithmetic not higher mathematics, although higher mathematics is also useful. The converse is that failing to look up statistics and do the arithmetic is a recipe for ignorance.
Or as a Bayesian might put it, use statistics to set up your priors and then the arithmetic of the Bayesian theorem to update on them.
Or, a bit less succinct,
Or as a Bayesian might put it, use statistics to set up your priors and then the arithmetic of the Bayesian theorem to update on them.