“Forty-eight curves (908 182 subjects and 86 941 deaths) were adjusted at least for age; among them, 28 were adjusted for social status too, and 10 for social status and dietary markers.”
This is adjusting for 1-4 confounders out of many possible confounders. Even doing so they lost half of the association.
Note that the scientists themselves do not claim a causal effect, but only association. It’s reasonable to take their word for this.
I personally would not change dietary habits just based on studies like this.
No because saying alcohol is healthy could get them in lots of trouble.
I personally would not change dietary habits just based on studies like this.
Not even a little? Does it at least slightly increase your estimate of alcohol being healthy and so if at a social event deciding whether to have a drink shift your cost benefit analysis?
| No because saying alcohol is healthy could get them in lots of trouble.
You may be right—on the other hand, one can get a lot of publicity for a controversial finding. I don’t think these sorts of studies use conservative language because they fear getting in trouble due to subject matter. I think they fear getting in trouble for using the wrong statistical methodology or the wrong language to describe it.
| Not even a little? Does it at least slightly increase your estimate of alcohol being healthy and so if at a social event deciding whether to have a drink shift your cost benefit analysis?
I am not a rationalist, and I don’t use these kinds of cost benefit analyses when out drinking :). These sorts of studies are simply never a swing vote in my decision making. I agree that these studies are weak evidence.
From the paper itself:
“Forty-eight curves (908 182 subjects and 86 941 deaths) were adjusted at least for age; among them, 28 were adjusted for social status too, and 10 for social status and dietary markers.”
This is adjusting for 1-4 confounders out of many possible confounders. Even doing so they lost half of the association. Note that the scientists themselves do not claim a causal effect, but only association. It’s reasonable to take their word for this.
I personally would not change dietary habits just based on studies like this.
They claim causation in several places, albeit sprinkled with perhapses and maybes. From the abstract:
From the Comment section:
This is all causal language.
No because saying alcohol is healthy could get them in lots of trouble.
Not even a little? Does it at least slightly increase your estimate of alcohol being healthy and so if at a social event deciding whether to have a drink shift your cost benefit analysis?
| No because saying alcohol is healthy could get them in lots of trouble.
You may be right—on the other hand, one can get a lot of publicity for a controversial finding. I don’t think these sorts of studies use conservative language because they fear getting in trouble due to subject matter. I think they fear getting in trouble for using the wrong statistical methodology or the wrong language to describe it.
| Not even a little? Does it at least slightly increase your estimate of alcohol being healthy and so if at a social event deciding whether to have a drink shift your cost benefit analysis?
I am not a rationalist, and I don’t use these kinds of cost benefit analyses when out drinking :). These sorts of studies are simply never a swing vote in my decision making. I agree that these studies are weak evidence.