I think you maybe miss an entire branch of the tech-tree here I consider important—the bit about the Lindy case of divination with a coin-flip and checking your gut. It doesn’t stop at a single bit in my experience; it’s something you can use more generally to get your own read on some situation much less filtered by masking-type self-delusion. At the absolute least, you can get a “yes/no/it’s complicated” out of it pretty easily with a bit more focusing!
I claim that divination[1] is specifically a good way for routing around the worried self-deception and yeah-sure-whatever daily frames and getting at how you really feel about something you’re clearly uncertain-and-high-arousal enough about to Do A Divination about.
As a maybe-tangent, a friend of mine has a self-designed divination method I like a lot but haven’t managed to fully learn how to do; what I like about it is its compositionality/modularity, where you pull a handful (3-5 IIRC) of symbolic rune-type things from a bag and toss them onto a surface, such that both the divination-tiles you pulled out and their relative-location/absolute-location/orientation/pointing-with-respect-to-each-other all matter. I don’t think I have a maximally good sense of why I like it so much past the obvious factors of “fun system/novelty/a friend made this” and “fine-grained expressive power” and “combinatorial explosion power”, though.
For my own part I like to use coins that I’ve made for other reasons for this purpose. They’re not fair coins; that’s the fun part.
In the explicit epistemic frame of “we are getting the bits of interest from some internal mental process to use for planning/self-check purposes”, mind you!
I think you maybe miss an entire branch of the tech-tree here I consider important—the bit about the Lindy case of divination with a coin-flip and checking your gut. It doesn’t stop at a single bit in my experience; it’s something you can use more generally to get your own read on some situation much less filtered by masking-type self-delusion. At the absolute least, you can get a “yes/no/it’s complicated” out of it pretty easily with a bit more focusing!
I claim that divination[1] is specifically a good way for routing around the worried self-deception and yeah-sure-whatever daily frames and getting at how you really feel about something you’re clearly uncertain-and-high-arousal enough about to Do A Divination about.
As a maybe-tangent, a friend of mine has a self-designed divination method I like a lot but haven’t managed to fully learn how to do; what I like about it is its compositionality/modularity, where you pull a handful (3-5 IIRC) of symbolic rune-type things from a bag and toss them onto a surface, such that both the divination-tiles you pulled out and their relative-location/absolute-location/orientation/pointing-with-respect-to-each-other all matter. I don’t think I have a maximally good sense of why I like it so much past the obvious factors of “fun system/novelty/a friend made this” and “fine-grained expressive power” and “combinatorial explosion power”, though.
For my own part I like to use coins that I’ve made for other reasons for this purpose. They’re not fair coins; that’s the fun part.
In the explicit epistemic frame of “we are getting the bits of interest from some internal mental process to use for planning/self-check purposes”, mind you!