I just caught myself mid sentence making an error because of cognitive bias in a situation that might make for a good question. We had a family member that was suppose to come at 6:00 tonight to visit. The person is often (but not always) late so earlier in the evening I said my estimate for them arriving was 6:30. About 6:15 we were sitting waiting for them to come and I looked up at the clock and said, “We’ll they’re 15 minutes late so far but I’ll—” I was going to finish with “stand by estimate of 6:30″ but realized that would likely not be optimal any more (or my original estimate of 6:30 wasn’t optimal). Given the new information I had, I should update my belief and estimate that they’ll arrive later than 6:30. So you could phrase the question:
You have invited guest over for the evening at 6:00pm. They are the type of people who are usually late (sometimes right on time, and sometimes even an hour or more late) and when making your planning you figure that their expected arrival time is 6:30pm. You continue your prep and later look up at the clock and see it is 6:15pm. Should you revise your estimate of what time they will arrive?
I just caught myself mid sentence making an error because of cognitive bias in a situation that might make for a good question. We had a family member that was suppose to come at 6:00 tonight to visit. The person is often (but not always) late so earlier in the evening I said my estimate for them arriving was 6:30. About 6:15 we were sitting waiting for them to come and I looked up at the clock and said, “We’ll they’re 15 minutes late so far but I’ll—” I was going to finish with “stand by estimate of 6:30″ but realized that would likely not be optimal any more (or my original estimate of 6:30 wasn’t optimal). Given the new information I had, I should update my belief and estimate that they’ll arrive later than 6:30. So you could phrase the question:
You have invited guest over for the evening at 6:00pm. They are the type of people who are usually late (sometimes right on time, and sometimes even an hour or more late) and when making your planning you figure that their expected arrival time is 6:30pm. You continue your prep and later look up at the clock and see it is 6:15pm. Should you revise your estimate of what time they will arrive?
P.S. it is now 6:32 and they’re still not here.
So when did they arrive?
A couple minutes before 7:00