“Re Will Pearson’s question: something like “didn’t you hear me say ‘if’”, I should think.”
Well they should phrase their questions better, and say what would be the probability (and probably put some caveat about that being the only information available no other prior knowledge etc), rather than what is* the probability. Imagine someone says, “If it takes 4 secs for light to move 5 metres, what is the speed of light?”. The answer should still be 3x10^8 or there abouts, the data given by someone should not always change your prediction about the world, they might be trying to trick you or exploit a bias in order for you to get things wrong. This is if it is a reasoning problem, if it is a math problem, then all the data given in the problem has to be treated as correct.
“Re Will Pearson’s question: something like “didn’t you hear me say ‘if’”, I should think.”
Well they should phrase their questions better, and say what would be the probability (and probably put some caveat about that being the only information available no other prior knowledge etc), rather than what is* the probability. Imagine someone says, “If it takes 4 secs for light to move 5 metres, what is the speed of light?”. The answer should still be 3x10^8 or there abouts, the data given by someone should not always change your prediction about the world, they might be trying to trick you or exploit a bias in order for you to get things wrong. This is if it is a reasoning problem, if it is a math problem, then all the data given in the problem has to be treated as correct.