Does the average LW user actually maintain a list of probabilities for their beliefs? Or is Bayesian probabilistic reasoning just some gold standard that no-one here actually does?
People’s brains can barely manage to multiply three-digit numbers together, so no human can do “Bayesian probabilistic reasoning”. So for humans it’s at best “the latter while using various practical tips to approximate the benefits of former” (e.g. being willing to express your certainty in a belief numerically when such a number is asked for you in a discussion).
People’s brains can barely manage to multiply three-digit numbers together, so no human can do “Bayesian probabilistic reasoning”. So for humans it’s at best “the latter while using various practical tips to approximate the benefits of former” (e.g. being willing to express your certainty in a belief numerically when such a number is asked for you in a discussion).