What ArisKatsaris said is accurate—given our hardware, it wouldn’t actually be a good thing to keep track of explicit probabilities for everything.
I try to put numbers on things if I have to make an important decision, and I have enough time to sit down and sketch it out. The last time I did that, I combined it with drawing graphs, and found I was actually using the drawings more—now I wonder if that’s a more intuitive way to handle it. (The way I visualize probabilities is splitting a bar up into segments, with the length of the segments in proportion to the length of the whole bar indicating the probability.)
One of my friends does keep explicit probabilities on unknowns that have a big affect on his life. I’m not sure what all he uses them for. Sometimes it gets… interesting, when I know his value for an unknown that will also affect one of my decisions, and I know he has access to more information than I do, but I’m not sure whether I trust his calibration. I’m still not really sure what the correct way to handle this is.
What ArisKatsaris said is accurate—given our hardware, it wouldn’t actually be a good thing to keep track of explicit probabilities for everything.
I try to put numbers on things if I have to make an important decision, and I have enough time to sit down and sketch it out. The last time I did that, I combined it with drawing graphs, and found I was actually using the drawings more—now I wonder if that’s a more intuitive way to handle it. (The way I visualize probabilities is splitting a bar up into segments, with the length of the segments in proportion to the length of the whole bar indicating the probability.)
One of my friends does keep explicit probabilities on unknowns that have a big affect on his life. I’m not sure what all he uses them for. Sometimes it gets… interesting, when I know his value for an unknown that will also affect one of my decisions, and I know he has access to more information than I do, but I’m not sure whether I trust his calibration. I’m still not really sure what the correct way to handle this is.