OMG! GEOFF! STOP STATING YOUR DEFERENTIAL PROBABILITY without also stating your first-order probability! If your first-order probability is >50% then say so! Otherwise you’re making other people (ELON MUSK!) double count evidence from “other people”.
OMG! GEOFF! STOP STATING YOUR DEFERENTIAL PROBABILITY without also stating your first-order probability! If your first-order probability is >50% then say so! Otherwise you’re making other people (ELON MUSK!) double count evidence from “other people”.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTF5Up1hMhw&t=2283s
https://tsvibt.blogspot.com/2022/09/dangers-of-deferrence.html