I think if its first attempt fails, it may have many other subsequent ones, depending on how visible the previous ones were and how well it hedged its position. For example, if a pathogen didn’t work out as intended due to a sim-to-real gap, but we’ve not even detected it or where it came from, the ASI can try a different strategy. If we did notice it and try to react to it in panic, the ASI may long have exfiltrated itself to an unknown location/substrate and continue with another plan. Speaking in the third historical analogy: If the Ardennes had actually stopped the advance, the Germans would still be there and attempt another strategy (e.g. direct assault on the Maginot line with novel technology as @RedMan mentioned in another comment) that could still put France out.
In contrast, if our first attempt fails, we won’t get a second try with a different strategy.
I think if its first attempt fails, it may have many other subsequent ones, depending on how visible the previous ones were and how well it hedged its position. For example, if a pathogen didn’t work out as intended due to a sim-to-real gap, but we’ve not even detected it or where it came from, the ASI can try a different strategy. If we did notice it and try to react to it in panic, the ASI may long have exfiltrated itself to an unknown location/substrate and continue with another plan. Speaking in the third historical analogy: If the Ardennes had actually stopped the advance, the Germans would still be there and attempt another strategy (e.g. direct assault on the Maginot line with novel technology as @RedMan mentioned in another comment) that could still put France out.
In contrast, if our first attempt fails, we won’t get a second try with a different strategy.