A big one has to do with Deepseek’s R1 maybe breaking moats, essentially killing industry profit if it happens:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ynsjJWTAMhTogLHm6/?commentId=a2y2dta4x38LqKLDX
The other issue has to do with o1/o3 being potentially more supervised than advertised:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HiTjDZyWdLEGCDzqu/?commentId=gfEFSWENkmqjzim3n#gfEFSWENkmqjzim3n
Finally, Vladimir Nesov has an interesting comment on how Stargate is actually evidence for longer timelines:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fdCaCDfstHxyPmB9h/vladimir_nesov-s-shortform#W5twe6SPqe5Y7oGQf
A big one has to do with Deepseek’s R1 maybe breaking moats, essentially killing industry profit if it happens:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ynsjJWTAMhTogLHm6/?commentId=a2y2dta4x38LqKLDX
The other issue has to do with o1/o3 being potentially more supervised than advertised:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HiTjDZyWdLEGCDzqu/?commentId=gfEFSWENkmqjzim3n#gfEFSWENkmqjzim3n
Finally, Vladimir Nesov has an interesting comment on how Stargate is actually evidence for longer timelines:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/fdCaCDfstHxyPmB9h/vladimir_nesov-s-shortform#W5twe6SPqe5Y7oGQf