Personally, I do expect that the customer visible cheating/lying behavior will improve (in the short run). It improved substantially with Opus 4 and I expect that Opus 5 will probably cheat/lie in easily noticable ways less than Opus 4.
I’m less confident about improvement in OpenAI models (and notably, o3 is substantially worse than o1), but I still tenatively expect that o4 cheats and lies less (in readily visible ways) than o3. And, same for OpenAI models released in the next year or two.
(Edited in:) I do think it’s pretty plausible that the next large capability jump from OpenAI will exhibit new misaligned behaviors which are qualitatively more malignant. It also seems plausible (though unlikely) it ends up basically being a derpy schemer which is aware of training etc.
This is all pretty low confidence though and it might be quite sensitive to changes in paradigm etc.
Personally, I do expect that the customer visible cheating/lying behavior will improve (in the short run). It improved substantially with Opus 4 and I expect that Opus 5 will probably cheat/lie in easily noticable ways less than Opus 4.
I’m less confident about improvement in OpenAI models (and notably, o3 is substantially worse than o1), but I still tenatively expect that o4 cheats and lies less (in readily visible ways) than o3. And, same for OpenAI models released in the next year or two.
(Edited in:) I do think it’s pretty plausible that the next large capability jump from OpenAI will exhibit new misaligned behaviors which are qualitatively more malignant. It also seems plausible (though unlikely) it ends up basically being a derpy schemer which is aware of training etc.
This is all pretty low confidence though and it might be quite sensitive to changes in paradigm etc.