how does the math work out if you consider that o3 was created around 8-9 months before it was released? and this model was finished in the last month or 2. that would be nearly a year difference, and should be modelled as such in bayesian’s adjusted METR doubling time extrapolation
how does the math work out if you consider that o3 was created around 8-9 months before it was released? and this model was finished in the last month or 2. that would be nearly a year difference, and should be modelled as such in bayesian’s adjusted METR doubling time extrapolation
Assuming the o3 date is accurate, I think IMO Gold shouldn’t have been surprising.