What do you mean by “takeoff”? I assume you mean the beginning of the AI Singularity.
I think the biggest opinion difference now isn’t either there will be AGI or not, manifold and metaculus keep ticking down the estimate.
It’s primarily
(1) how far does it actually scale from there. What kind of things is greater intelligence actually capable of doing? How much compute will greater levels of intelligence take to host?
(2) how rapidly can the actual physical world be altered. This means robots, which have also been accelerated recently, and robots able to build each other, and doubling times.
There are people that predict things like 1 week doubling times but I feel they are speculating outside the range of possibilities because there are unavoidable latencies to manipulate the physical world.
What do you mean by “takeoff”? I assume you mean the beginning of the AI Singularity.
I think the biggest opinion difference now isn’t either there will be AGI or not, manifold and metaculus keep ticking down the estimate.
It’s primarily
(1) how far does it actually scale from there. What kind of things is greater intelligence actually capable of doing? How much compute will greater levels of intelligence take to host?
(2) how rapidly can the actual physical world be altered. This means robots, which have also been accelerated recently, and robots able to build each other, and doubling times.
There are people that predict things like 1 week doubling times but I feel they are speculating outside the range of possibilities because there are unavoidable latencies to manipulate the physical world.
Do you have opinions on either?