To be clear, I agree it provides evidence against very aggressive timelines (if I had 2027 medians I would have updated to longer), I was disagreeing with “the study doesn’t say much about AGI, except to”. I think the study does provide a bunch of evidence about when AGI might come! (And it seems you agree.) I edited my original comment to clarify this as I think I didn’t communicate what I was trying to say well.
To be clear, I agree it provides evidence against very aggressive timelines (if I had 2027 medians I would have updated to longer), I was disagreeing with “the study doesn’t say much about AGI, except to”. I think the study does provide a bunch of evidence about when AGI might come! (And it seems you agree.) I edited my original comment to clarify this as I think I didn’t communicate what I was trying to say well.