My guess: if we define agi or a superhuman coder as “self serving agent that learns to optimize for unseen objectives based on its prediction history” - basic necessary primitives / “blueprint” understood by 2030 - a recipe made stable in the sense of compute, as well as the infra for these kind of things, efficiency etc ~2035 maybe sooner. But what could happen is that if we throw 10000 superhuman coders working on a new superhuman coder, things can accelerate quick.
My guess: if we define agi or a superhuman coder as “self serving agent that learns to optimize for unseen objectives based on its prediction history”
- basic necessary primitives / “blueprint” understood by 2030
- a recipe made stable in the sense of compute, as well as the infra for these kind of things, efficiency etc ~2035 maybe sooner. But what could happen is that if we throw 10000 superhuman coders working on a new superhuman coder, things can accelerate quick.