Advanced RL, like open borders + housing deregulation, guarantees vast economic growth in wealthy countries.
I think this comparison is imperfect. Standard economic models predict an acceleration in the growth rate by at least an order of magnitude, and usually more. Over one decade, an increase in economic capacity by 1-4 orders of magnitude seems probable. By contrast, my understanding was that the models of open borders roughly predict a one-time doubling of world GDP over several decades, and for housing, it’s something like a 50% increase in GDP over decades.
Perhaps a better way to put this is that if AI is developed anywhere, even in a small country, that country could soon (within 10 years) grow to be the world’s foremost economic power. Nothing comparable seems true for other policies. There only really needs to be be one successful defecting nation for this coordination to fall apart.
I think this comparison is imperfect. Standard economic models predict an acceleration in the growth rate by at least an order of magnitude, and usually more. Over one decade, an increase in economic capacity by 1-4 orders of magnitude seems probable. By contrast, my understanding was that the models of open borders roughly predict a one-time doubling of world GDP over several decades, and for housing, it’s something like a 50% increase in GDP over decades.
Perhaps a better way to put this is that if AI is developed anywhere, even in a small country, that country could soon (within 10 years) grow to be the world’s foremost economic power. Nothing comparable seems true for other policies. There only really needs to be be one successful defecting nation for this coordination to fall apart.