I think you’re confusing the quoted sentence and “I think airline tickets are expensive”.
It is more likely that he is ‘confusing’ the quoted sentence and the findings from analysis of business failures (and marginal successes) in the industry in question compared with other industries and various analyses about the market forces that produce that result. This is still not quite the same thing as “commercial aviation is just barely economically viable today” but far closer than “I think airline tickets are expensive”.
(I agree with Lumifer that Army’s conclusion does not follow. Tripling the cost of fuel would still result in a viable albeit far, far smaller commercial aviation market.)
The cost of fuel seems to account for about 20% of the cost of the ticket on a US domestic flight (source). Given that international flights have higher fees, I expect the fuel cost percentage to be even smaller for them.
For example I took a look at a New York—London return economy ticket which costs about $1050 now. Out of that amount $250 are government taxes and fees (NOT including the sales tax).
It is more likely that he is ‘confusing’ the quoted sentence and the findings from analysis of business failures (and marginal successes) in the industry in question compared with other industries and various analyses about the market forces that produce that result. This is still not quite the same thing as “commercial aviation is just barely economically viable today” but far closer than “I think airline tickets are expensive”.
(I agree with Lumifer that Army’s conclusion does not follow. Tripling the cost of fuel would still result in a viable albeit far, far smaller commercial aviation market.)
The cost of fuel seems to account for about 20% of the cost of the ticket on a US domestic flight (source). Given that international flights have higher fees, I expect the fuel cost percentage to be even smaller for them.
For example I took a look at a New York—London return economy ticket which costs about $1050 now. Out of that amount $250 are government taxes and fees (NOT including the sales tax).