What “more than 10%” part? This string doesn’t occur elsewhere in the comments to this post. Maybe you meant “likely more than 50%”? I wrote:
Another possible claim that’s more accurate can say “50%” instead of “48%” (or better yet “median”, using an appropriate phrasing), but in fact it’s likely more than 50% and requires looking at the data to determine how much.
That’s just what the meaning of “median” implies, in this context where people are writing down rounded numbers, so that a nontrivial portion would all say “10%” exactly.
I got your notes confused with the actual publisher’s notes and it made sense when I figured that you took and combined the quotes from their site. I also analyzed the data. “At least 10%” should actually be “10%”. The questionnaire was a free form. I think it’s not fair to pair “738 responses, some partial, for a 17% response rate” with these concrete questions. 149 gave an estimate to the first question and 162 to the second question about the extinction. 62 people out of 162 assigned the second question 20% or higher probability.
Which “at least 10%” should actually be “10%”? In “48% of respondents gave at least 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome”, “at least” is clearly correct.
The questionnaire was a free form. I think it’s not fair to pair “738 responses, some partial, for a 17% response rate” with these concrete questions. 149 gave an estimate to the first question and 162 to the second question about the extinction.
Good point. It’s under “some partial”, but in the noncentral sense of “80% didn’t give an answer to this question”.
What “more than 10%” part? This string doesn’t occur elsewhere in the comments to this post. Maybe you meant “likely more than 50%”? I wrote:
That’s just what the meaning of “median” implies, in this context where people are writing down rounded numbers, so that a nontrivial portion would all say “10%” exactly.
I got your notes confused with the actual publisher’s notes and it made sense when I figured that you took and combined the quotes from their site. I also analyzed the data. “At least 10%” should actually be “10%”. The questionnaire was a free form. I think it’s not fair to pair “738 responses, some partial, for a 17% response rate” with these concrete questions. 149 gave an estimate to the first question and 162 to the second question about the extinction. 62 people out of 162 assigned the second question 20% or higher probability.
Which “at least 10%” should actually be “10%”? In “48% of respondents gave at least 10% chance of an extremely bad outcome”, “at least” is clearly correct.
Good point. It’s under “some partial”, but in the noncentral sense of “80% didn’t give an answer to this question”.