a global moratorium on all aspects of AI capability progress for the next few decades would be a substantial improvement over the status quo
Saw some shrug reacts on this so wanted to elaborate a bit—I’m not super confident about this (maybe like 70% now rising to 80% the later we implement the pause), and become a lot more pessimistic about it if the moratorium does not cover things like hardware improvements, research into better algorithms, etc. I’m also sort of pricing in that there’s sufficient political will to make this happen; the backlash from a decree like this if in fact most ordinary voters really hated it seems likely to be bad in various ways. As such I don’t really try and do advocacy for such changes in 2025, though I’m very into preparing for such a push later on if we get warning shots or much more public will to put on the brakes. Happy to hear more on people’s cruxes for those who think this is of unclear or negative sign.
Saw some shrug reacts on this so wanted to elaborate a bit—I’m not super confident about this (maybe like 70% now rising to 80% the later we implement the pause), and become a lot more pessimistic about it if the moratorium does not cover things like hardware improvements, research into better algorithms, etc. I’m also sort of pricing in that there’s sufficient political will to make this happen; the backlash from a decree like this if in fact most ordinary voters really hated it seems likely to be bad in various ways. As such I don’t really try and do advocacy for such changes in 2025, though I’m very into preparing for such a push later on if we get warning shots or much more public will to put on the brakes. Happy to hear more on people’s cruxes for those who think this is of unclear or negative sign.