Why do I believe this? Well I’ve seen this evolution in Risk. Newer players will overattack, using all their troops on the first few turns to take territories and break bonuses. They slowly evolve into turtles, keeping all their troops in one stack blocked by their own territories so they couldn’t do anything even if they wanted to, and only ever attacking one territory at a time. This is where most players stop their evolution, because after learning zeroth-order heuristics like, “the world is scary, better be super conservative,” the only way to further progress is to start modelling conflicts more than zero turns ahead.
Why do I believe this? Well I’ve seen this evolution in Risk. Newer players will overattack, using all their troops on the first few turns to take territories and break bonuses. They slowly evolve into turtles, keeping all their troops in one stack blocked by their own territories so they couldn’t do anything even if they wanted to, and only ever attacking one territory at a time. This is where most players stop their evolution, because after learning zeroth-order heuristics like, “the world is scary, better be super conservative,” the only way to further progress is to start modelling conflicts more than zero turns ahead.