How long until the sun (starts to) get eaten? 10th/50th/90th percentile: 3y, 12y, 37y.
How long until an AI reaches Elo 4000 on codeforces? 10/50/90: 9mo, 2.5y, 11.5y
About one month ago, aka 6 months after I wrote this, OpenAI’s model won the ICPC world finals, which I guess is sorta equivalent to Elo 4000 on codeforces, given that it won by a significant margin.
(This updates me to thinking that both (1) AI capabilities increase faster than I expected, and (2) competetive programming requires less general intelligence than I expected.)
Absent any coordinated slowdown, my new 10/50/90 guess for dyson sphere level capability is: 1y, 3.3y, 18y.
(I still find it hard to predict whether progress will continue continuous or whether there will be at least one capability leap.)
I updated my timelines
7 months ago, I wrote down those AI predictions:
About one month ago, aka 6 months after I wrote this, OpenAI’s model won the ICPC world finals, which I guess is sorta equivalent to Elo 4000 on codeforces, given that it won by a significant margin.
(This updates me to thinking that both (1) AI capabilities increase faster than I expected, and (2) competetive programming requires less general intelligence than I expected.)
Absent any coordinated slowdown, my new 10/50/90 guess for dyson sphere level capability is: 1y, 3.3y, 18y.
(I still find it hard to predict whether progress will continue continuous or whether there will be at least one capability leap.)