I definitely have to update here—that’s just law of probability. Maybe you don’t have to update much if you already expected to have superhuman competetive programming around now.
But also this isn’t the only update that informs my new timelines. I was saying more like “look I wrote down advanced predictions and it was actually useful to me”, rather than intending to give an epistemically legible account of my timeline models.
I definitely have to update here—that’s just law of probability. Maybe you don’t have to update much if you already expected to have superhuman competetive programming around now.
But also this isn’t the only update that informs my new timelines. I was saying more like “look I wrote down advanced predictions and it was actually useful to me”, rather than intending to give an epistemically legible account of my timeline models.