In other words, you’re still investigating the same things (possibly with different stopping criteria—e.g. you’d be done if you disproved your hypothesis), but you have substantial evidence in favor of your hypothesis already. Am I understanding you correctly?
I’m not sure the blog post you’re linking to is helpful, though. One could come up with your list of options without having done any prior investigation. In other words, unlike Einstein, it’s entirely plausible to be at the stage where you’re considering Option 2 without having evidence favoring Option 2 over the others. And even if you have 50% certainty in Option 2, that only implies 3-4 bits of evidence.
And I think the mistrust you see in the comments is due precisely to the absence of evidence from your post. Which is weakly evidence of absence. Granted, I don’t think your post is intended to present all your evidence, but seeing some of it first would help frame your discussion.
Upvote from me! Yes, you are understanding me correctly.
One could indeed come up with my list of options without having done any prior investigation. But would one share it with others? My pointing at that particular post is meant to be a signal that I grok that it is not rational to share it with others until I believe that I have strong evidence that it is a strong hypothesis and have pretty much run out of experiments that I can conduct by myself that could possibly disprove the hypothesis.
Skepticism is desired as long as it doesn’t interfere with the analysis of the hypothesis. If mistrust leads someone to walk away from a hypothesis that would be of great interest to them, if true, without fairly analyzing the hypothesis, that’s a problem.
Yes, I realize that I still am lacking some of the skills necessary to present and frame a discussion here. I should have presented an example as Vladimir pointed out. I’m under the impression that evidence isn’t necessarily appropriate at this point. If people would leap in to correct me if that is incorrect, it would be appreciated.
In other words, you’re still investigating the same things (possibly with different stopping criteria—e.g. you’d be done if you disproved your hypothesis), but you have substantial evidence in favor of your hypothesis already. Am I understanding you correctly?
I’m not sure the blog post you’re linking to is helpful, though. One could come up with your list of options without having done any prior investigation. In other words, unlike Einstein, it’s entirely plausible to be at the stage where you’re considering Option 2 without having evidence favoring Option 2 over the others. And even if you have 50% certainty in Option 2, that only implies 3-4 bits of evidence.
And I think the mistrust you see in the comments is due precisely to the absence of evidence from your post. Which is weakly evidence of absence. Granted, I don’t think your post is intended to present all your evidence, but seeing some of it first would help frame your discussion.
Upvote from me! Yes, you are understanding me correctly.
One could indeed come up with my list of options without having done any prior investigation. But would one share it with others? My pointing at that particular post is meant to be a signal that I grok that it is not rational to share it with others until I believe that I have strong evidence that it is a strong hypothesis and have pretty much run out of experiments that I can conduct by myself that could possibly disprove the hypothesis.
Skepticism is desired as long as it doesn’t interfere with the analysis of the hypothesis. If mistrust leads someone to walk away from a hypothesis that would be of great interest to them, if true, without fairly analyzing the hypothesis, that’s a problem.
Yes, I realize that I still am lacking some of the skills necessary to present and frame a discussion here. I should have presented an example as Vladimir pointed out. I’m under the impression that evidence isn’t necessarily appropriate at this point. If people would leap in to correct me if that is incorrect, it would be appreciated.