The data relating exponential capabilities to Elo is seen over decades in the computer chess history too. From the 1960s into the 2020′s, while computer hardware advanced exponentially at 100-1000x per decade in performance (and SW for computer chess advanced too), Elo scores grew linearly at about 400x per decade, taking multiple decades to go from ‘novice’ to ‘superhuman’. Elo scores have a tinge of exponential to them—a 400 point Elo advantage is about a 10:1 chance for the higher scored competitor to win, and an 800 point Elo is about 200:1, etc. It appears that the current HW/SW/dollar rate of growth towards AGI means the Elo relative to humans is increasing faster than 400 Elo/decade. And, of course, unlike computer chess, as AI Elo at ‘AI development’ approaches the level of a skilled human, we’ll likely get a noticable increase in the rate of capability increase.
The data relating exponential capabilities to Elo is seen over decades in the computer chess history too. From the 1960s into the 2020′s, while computer hardware advanced exponentially at 100-1000x per decade in performance (and SW for computer chess advanced too), Elo scores grew linearly at about 400x per decade, taking multiple decades to go from ‘novice’ to ‘superhuman’. Elo scores have a tinge of exponential to them—a 400 point Elo advantage is about a 10:1 chance for the higher scored competitor to win, and an 800 point Elo is about 200:1, etc. It appears that the current HW/SW/dollar rate of growth towards AGI means the Elo relative to humans is increasing faster than 400 Elo/decade. And, of course, unlike computer chess, as AI Elo at ‘AI development’ approaches the level of a skilled human, we’ll likely get a noticable increase in the rate of capability increase.