Very good and important points. Not much to add, except a brag that the bayes points I made from betting on a tory majority should keep me on top of the leaderboard of the prediction market at the Citadel rationalist house for another month. In honesty, this probably had less to do with the superiority of my Bayes-fu and more to do with blind luck.
Very good and important points. Not much to add, except a brag that the bayes points I made from betting on a tory majority should keep me on top of the leaderboard of the prediction market at the Citadel rationalist house for another month. In honesty, this probably had less to do with the superiority of my Bayes-fu and more to do with blind luck.