Quick related question that you might know the answer to: are you aware of any research testing the accuracy (in predicting technological progress) of statistical prediction rules trained on the the judgments of experts? As you know from Bishop & Trout, these can do better than the experts themselves at integrating information, even when the experts are very inaccurate.
Quick related question that you might know the answer to: are you aware of any research testing the accuracy (in predicting technological progress) of statistical prediction rules trained on the the judgments of experts? As you know from Bishop & Trout, these can do better than the experts themselves at integrating information, even when the experts are very inaccurate.