Another danger is that you just won’t have much impact at all, positive or negative. Most x-risk-themed work will end up being a low-impact waste of time ex post, for structural reasons, among others. But if you select what to work on by trying to maximize your own personal impact and / or fit, based on the consensus vibes of your local community, you’re overwhelmingly likely to end up working on something that is predictably nil-impact ex ante.
Somewhat less fraught is to filter strictly for what you personally and independently think is both critically important and independently tractable, for detailed inside view reasons of your own, regardless of what the vibes are. Then intersect that with things that are feasible for you personally to work on and don’t constitute throwing your mind away[1]. And then accepting that set will most likely be empty for most people.
This is importantly different than “fit”—working on something outside your comfort zone or past experience profile can often be the opposite of “throwing your mind away”.
Another danger is that you just won’t have much impact at all, positive or negative. Most x-risk-themed work will end up being a low-impact waste of time ex post, for structural reasons, among others. But if you select what to work on by trying to maximize your own personal impact and / or fit, based on the consensus vibes of your local community, you’re overwhelmingly likely to end up working on something that is predictably nil-impact ex ante.
Somewhat less fraught is to filter strictly for what you personally and independently think is both critically important and independently tractable, for detailed inside view reasons of your own, regardless of what the vibes are. Then intersect that with things that are feasible for you personally to work on and don’t constitute throwing your mind away[1]. And then accepting that set will most likely be empty for most people.
This is importantly different than “fit”—working on something outside your comfort zone or past experience profile can often be the opposite of “throwing your mind away”.