good odds of changing stuff
Part of the problem OP points out is that “changing stuff” =/= “changing stuff positively”. (“Here’s one. Crucial considerations and sign flips are common.”)
cf https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BnFuHDueG9vRAYqLd/changing-the-world-for-the-worse
Indeed, have edited my comment to reflect that.
Part of the problem OP points out is that “changing stuff” =/= “changing stuff positively”. (“Here’s one. Crucial considerations and sign flips are common.”)
cf https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BnFuHDueG9vRAYqLd/changing-the-world-for-the-worse
Indeed, have edited my comment to reflect that.