Not a direct answer to your question but:
One article I (easily) found on prediction markets mentions Bryan Caplan but has no mention of Hanson
There are plenty of startups promoting prediction markets: Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, etc
There was a recent article Why prediction markets aren’t popular, which gives plenty of good reasons but doesn’t mention any Hanson headwind
Scott Alexander does regular “Mantic Monday” posts on prediction markets
Not a direct answer to your question but:
One article I (easily) found on prediction markets mentions Bryan Caplan but has no mention of Hanson
There are plenty of startups promoting prediction markets: Manifold, Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, etc
There was a recent article Why prediction markets aren’t popular, which gives plenty of good reasons but doesn’t mention any Hanson headwind
Scott Alexander does regular “Mantic Monday” posts on prediction markets