I also feel pretty meh about the content of Deciding to Win and (somewhat) AI 2027, but as a medium, I think popularizing widely accessible, written long-form prose as a mode of elite discourse is unambiguously positive and potentially very impactful.
It’s kind of taken for granted around here, but “reliably and deeply engage with thoughtful written word” is absolutely not a bar that most discourse of any stripe meets. If Lightcone changes that even a little, for example by causing policymakers, elected officials, and other kinds of elites to shift a bit of their time from trawling social media and TV news, reacting to vibes and shallow popular sentiment, to engaging more with bloggers and public intellectuals, that seems like it could be worth a lot.
As a medium, a slick one page website seems like a nice middle ground in the design space between books (less accessible / widely shareable, often too long, don’t allow for good back-and-forth / commentary) and blog posts with comment sections (ideal for truly deep engagement, but not as legible / accessible for different reasons). And all of these are much better than TV news, “community engagement”, social media, video, etc.
I think you’re mistaken about the advantages of this medium over others. My sense is that the main effect of Lightcone’s work (especially for Deciding to Win) was to add a kind of polished, “slick” (as you say) look which then helps the report build momentum on a political level. It’s the digital equivalent of printing something in vivid color on a glossy brochure rather than in black and white on A4 paper.
I’m not saying that this kind of PR-type optimization is necessarily bad, but I do feel meh about it.
(For AI 2027, it feels like an open question to me how much the dashboard in the top right corner actually helped people think about the content, versus primarily having the effect of conveying a sense of professionalism and “you should trust this”.)
It’s the digital equivalent of printing something in vivid color on a glossy brochure rather than in black and white on A4 paper.
Hmm, maybe, but if that’s what it takes to get people to start consuming text content (instead of video), I’ll take it? By “medium” I was primarily referring to text over video, not that dashboards and polished graphics—I think if Lightcone were to spend time creating e.g. polished political ads or explainer / informational videos of any kind that would be pretty bad, unless they strongly endorsed the content.
I wasn’t super explicit about it in the grandparent, but two load-bearing and perhaps unusual things I believe:
A large fraction of people, including elites, get basically all of their information and form their opinions and beliefs based on non-text sources: TV news, shortform video, instructional and educational videos, talking and listening to other people, etc.
(I suspect a lot of LW and adjacent people who tend to consume a lot of text content don’t realize how widespread this is due to typical-minding.)
This is probably really bad. There are a bunch of topics and discourse that are just totally unsuited for and unproductive when they happen in any medium other than long-form prose. Intellectuals can sometimes have live debates and discussions that others might get some value out of observing, but the source of the value here comes almost entirely from those intellectuals doing a lifetime of reading and writing beforehand as preparation.
I also feel pretty meh about the content of Deciding to Win and (somewhat) AI 2027, but as a medium, I think popularizing widely accessible, written long-form prose as a mode of elite discourse is unambiguously positive and potentially very impactful.
It’s kind of taken for granted around here, but “reliably and deeply engage with thoughtful written word” is absolutely not a bar that most discourse of any stripe meets. If Lightcone changes that even a little, for example by causing policymakers, elected officials, and other kinds of elites to shift a bit of their time from trawling social media and TV news, reacting to vibes and shallow popular sentiment, to engaging more with bloggers and public intellectuals, that seems like it could be worth a lot.
As a medium, a slick one page website seems like a nice middle ground in the design space between books (less accessible / widely shareable, often too long, don’t allow for good back-and-forth / commentary) and blog posts with comment sections (ideal for truly deep engagement, but not as legible / accessible for different reasons). And all of these are much better than TV news, “community engagement”, social media, video, etc.
I think you’re mistaken about the advantages of this medium over others. My sense is that the main effect of Lightcone’s work (especially for Deciding to Win) was to add a kind of polished, “slick” (as you say) look which then helps the report build momentum on a political level. It’s the digital equivalent of printing something in vivid color on a glossy brochure rather than in black and white on A4 paper.
I’m not saying that this kind of PR-type optimization is necessarily bad, but I do feel meh about it.
(For AI 2027, it feels like an open question to me how much the dashboard in the top right corner actually helped people think about the content, versus primarily having the effect of conveying a sense of professionalism and “you should trust this”.)
Hmm, maybe, but if that’s what it takes to get people to start consuming text content (instead of video), I’ll take it? By “medium” I was primarily referring to text over video, not that dashboards and polished graphics—I think if Lightcone were to spend time creating e.g. polished political ads or explainer / informational videos of any kind that would be pretty bad, unless they strongly endorsed the content.
I wasn’t super explicit about it in the grandparent, but two load-bearing and perhaps unusual things I believe:
A large fraction of people, including elites, get basically all of their information and form their opinions and beliefs based on non-text sources: TV news, shortform video, instructional and educational videos, talking and listening to other people, etc.
(I suspect a lot of LW and adjacent people who tend to consume a lot of text content don’t realize how widespread this is due to typical-minding.)
This is probably really bad. There are a bunch of topics and discourse that are just totally unsuited for and unproductive when they happen in any medium other than long-form prose. Intellectuals can sometimes have live debates and discussions that others might get some value out of observing, but the source of the value here comes almost entirely from those intellectuals doing a lifetime of reading and writing beforehand as preparation.