But then there is still no consistent way to formalize your epistemic state about the coin’s outcome as a probability distribution about the coin’s outcome, even though there clearly is a rational epistemic state to have about the coin’s outcome.
If there’s a natural way to condense your information about the coin into a single probability, you can do it just as well starting from a distribution over UDT-style universes. Like if you think it should be 50⁄50 because that’s your best guess if you forget the information about your precise action, you can give yourself a low-information distribution over policies and then marginalize over it to see what happens to the coin.
If there’s a natural way to condense your information about the coin into a single probability, you can do it just as well starting from a distribution over UDT-style universes. Like if you think it should be 50⁄50 because that’s your best guess if you forget the information about your precise action, you can give yourself a low-information distribution over policies and then marginalize over it to see what happens to the coin.