… except that you have a natural immunity (well, aversion) to adopting complex generators, and a natural affinity for simple explanations. Or at least I think both of those are true of most people.
It seems pretty important to me to distinguish between “heuristic X is worse than its inverse” and “heuristic X is better than its inverse, but less good than you think it is”.
Your top-level comment seemed to me like it was saying that a given simple explanation is less likely to be true than a given complex explanation. Here, you seem to me like you’re saying that simple explanation is more likely to be true, but people have a preference for them that is stronger than the actual effect, and so you want to push people back to having a preference that is weaker but still in the original direction.
It seems pretty important to me to distinguish between “heuristic X is worse than its inverse” and “heuristic X is better than its inverse, but less good than you think it is”.
Your top-level comment seemed to me like it was saying that a given simple explanation is less likely to be true than a given complex explanation. Here, you seem to me like you’re saying that simple explanation is more likely to be true, but people have a preference for them that is stronger than the actual effect, and so you want to push people back to having a preference that is weaker but still in the original direction.