ty for sharing your experience, esp. the time estimate!
i perceive my time at 21yo very high-value & think it’s important for young people to take themselves more seriously, but possibly low-value relative to where it may be at 30yo :’) hm hm
(compounding returns, returns to starting earlier, etc)
I don’t immediately see how AI progress would help super much here, though IDK and of course it could be surprising. IDK why IVF is still so expensive. See the thread here w/ GeneSmith + me: https://x.com/BerkeleyGenomic/status/2026173816351674879. But the hypotheses there are things like:
You need certifications to do egg retrieval. (Not obviously helped by AI)
Meds are expensive. (But they are much cheaper elsewhere, so I’d guess this is a regulatory thing, so not really helped by AI?)
AFAIK there’s currently no practical alternative to this type of egg retrieval (stimulation with meds and then surgically extracting whatever grows). (There are presumably worse alternatives like surgically extracting ovarian tissue, used for fertility preservation across chemotherapy.)
The hope would be in vitro oogenesis. AI might help with some bits of that, IDK (like designing molecules for epigenetic control, or doing big literature searches, or something). But it’s mostly a hard problem, requiring slow experiments, with some experts working on it, which I doubt would just be solved with a magic wand.
(There are several other ways things can improve, e.g. better understanding of how to personalize drug regimens, better ways of freezing and fertilizing, maybe methods for in vitro maturation of immature retrieved eggs, less painful Menopur, etc.; but none of these avoid the big hassle of standard egg retrieval. In theory there could be some much more convenient way to administer drugs?)
So my weak guess would be that waiting is basically a bet on IVG coming in time for your desired time to start a family. I’m hopeful about IVG but I would not bet on that.
ai progress :) +++
ty for sharing your experience, esp. the time estimate!
i perceive my time at 21yo very high-value & think it’s important for young people to take themselves more seriously, but possibly low-value relative to where it may be at 30yo :’) hm hm
(compounding returns, returns to starting earlier, etc)
I don’t immediately see how AI progress would help super much here, though IDK and of course it could be surprising. IDK why IVF is still so expensive. See the thread here w/ GeneSmith + me: https://x.com/BerkeleyGenomic/status/2026173816351674879. But the hypotheses there are things like:
You need certifications to do egg retrieval. (Not obviously helped by AI)
Meds are expensive. (But they are much cheaper elsewhere, so I’d guess this is a regulatory thing, so not really helped by AI?)
AFAIK there’s currently no practical alternative to this type of egg retrieval (stimulation with meds and then surgically extracting whatever grows). (There are presumably worse alternatives like surgically extracting ovarian tissue, used for fertility preservation across chemotherapy.)
The hope would be in vitro oogenesis. AI might help with some bits of that, IDK (like designing molecules for epigenetic control, or doing big literature searches, or something). But it’s mostly a hard problem, requiring slow experiments, with some experts working on it, which I doubt would just be solved with a magic wand.
(There are several other ways things can improve, e.g. better understanding of how to personalize drug regimens, better ways of freezing and fertilizing, maybe methods for in vitro maturation of immature retrieved eggs, less painful Menopur, etc.; but none of these avoid the big hassle of standard egg retrieval. In theory there could be some much more convenient way to administer drugs?)
So my weak guess would be that waiting is basically a bet on IVG coming in time for your desired time to start a family. I’m hopeful about IVG but I would not bet on that.